The social mirror is curved : several notes on the law, statistics and social ignorance

Obserwacje wyników badań dotyczących percepcji rzeczywistości przez mieszkańców poszczególnych krajów dają podstawę do postawienia hipotezy, iż współczesna debata publiczna dotycząca ważnych zagadnień prawnych oraz kształtu systemu społeczno-ekonomicznego opiera się w dużej mierze na społecznej ignorancji. Ankietowani bardzo wyraźnie, nawet kilkunastokrotnie, zawyżali odsetek nastolatek, które zachodzą w ciążę oraz liczebność imigrantów i muzułmanów (ta ostatnia grupa to kilkuprocentowa mniejszość, lub minimalna, mniejsza od procenta część społeczeństwa - mimo to we wszystkich krajach liczba ta została kilkukrotnie przeszacowana). Ankietowani kilkukrotnie zawyżali także skale bezrobocia we wszystkich krajach, w których przeprowadzono sondaż. Społeczna ignorancja jest niezwykle szkodliwym i rozpowszechnionym zjawiskiem, a wyniki badań przeprowadzone przez grupę naukowców z IPSOS Mori, które przytaczam niżej potwierdzają tezę o istnieniu społecznej ignorancji i zakłóceń w debacie publicznej. Podjęty zostaje również wątek wpływu społecznej ignorancji na prawodawstwo (abstrahując od konkretnego systemu prawnego) oraz debatę publiczną.

Various observations of a study on the perception of reality by people from different countries have led to the development of the hypothesis that the contemporary public debate on important legal issues and the current state of the socioeconomic system is based largely on social ignorance (lack of knowledge). A recent survey of 14 countries conducted by Ipsos MORI sought to determine the accuracy of the knowledge of the inhabitants of developed countries (including Poland) about important and emerging controversial issues of public debate. It should come as no surprise to anyone that the results of the study indicate that there is a large gap between social perception and reality. Respondents clearly and repeatedly overestimated the percentage of teenage girls who get pregnant and the number of immigrants and Muslims (the latter group is a minority group that makes up from less than one percent to several percent of society, depending on the country; yet in all countries, the number was repeatedly overestimated). Respondents also repeatedly overestimated the percentage of unemployed individuals in all countries in which the survey was conducted. Very important from a public debate point of view is the observation that among social minorities, whose numbers are drastically overestimated (e.x. Musilm) in the public eye in all countries, there are groups that are especially prone to being overestimated. Survey respondents had a skewed perception of negative economic phenomena (such as unemployment, which still implies a high economic instability or a lacking work ethic in the state). In Christian countries, survey respondents overestimated the percentage of non-Christians, and in all countries surveyed, the percentage of people who do not participate in elections and thus fail to fulfill their basic civic duty and appear to approach democracy with an attitude of ignorance was also overestimated. Jürgen Habermas formulated the normative concept of the "public sphere", in which rational debate ideally takes place in society. Perfectly rational public debate is, of course, a utopian idea, but it should be noted that in a situation in which the public imagination is so drastically skewed about important issues, it is not possible to even begin to approach Habermas’s vision of the public sphere. In addition to the particular legal system, social ignorance can affect the preferences and values of judges and juries, even in matters of pronounced compensation, as the general public, which also includes judges and jurors, tends to overestimate the magnitude of the problem and encourages that stricter penalties and preventive measures be applied than perhaps necessary. The same holds true for anti-immigration policies: the public chooses politicians and supports bills that they believe will remedy a very big problem that, in reality, is actually a small problem. Making such choices on the basis of cognitive errors and biases cannot possibly positively impact national legislation.