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Mountain forest areas are key for providing a
wide range of ecosystem services and are hot spots for land
use change processes, in particular, increase in forest cover
at the expense of mountain pastures and meadows.
Mountain forest systems in eastern and western Europe
have likely similar future socio-economic situations but
significantly different socio-economic history. Using a
scenario-based land use modelling approach (Dyna-CLUE
framework) we model three scenarios (trend, liberalisation
and self-sufficiency) of future land use in the Polish
Carpathians and the Swiss Alps, focussing on forest cover
change. We find that forest cover increase can be expected
to continue in European mountainous regions under all
likely scenarios, limited only by relatively strict policy
interventions. Biophysical factors, rather than socio-eco-
nomic ones, are key for defining the suitability for, and
therefore likely locations of future forest cover, but land
use legacy plays a very important role in the spatial pat-
terns of future forest cover, particularly in eastern Europe.
słowa kluczowe w j. angielskim:
forest cover change, land use change, future scenarios, the Polish Carpathians, the Swiss Alps
wydział: instytut / zakład / katedra:
Wydział Geografii i Geologii : Instytut Geografii i Gospodarki Przestrzennej