Legacies, socio-economic and biophysical processes and drivers : the case of future forest cover expansion in the Polish Carpathians and Swiss Alps

doi:10.1007/s10113-016-1079-z

Legacies, socio-economic and biophysical processes and drivers : the case of future forest cover expansion in the Polish Carpathians and Swiss Alps

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Legacies, socio-economic and biophysical processes and drivers : the case of future forest cover expansion in the Polish Carpathians and Swiss Alps

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punktacja MNiSW [2017 A]: 35

title:	Legacies, socio-economic and biophysical processes and drivers : the case of future forest cover expansion in the Polish Carpathians and Swiss Alps
author:	Price Bronwyn, Kaim Dominik , Szwagrzyk Marcin , Ostapowicz Katarzyna , Kolecka Natalia , Schmatz Dirk R., Wypych Agnieszka , Kozak Jacek
journal title:	Regional Environmental Change
title of volume:	Current practices and challenges for modelling past and future land use and land cover changes in mountainous regions
volume:	17
issue:	8
date of publication :	2017
pages:	2279-2291
ISSN:	1436-3798
eISSN:	1436-378X
DOI:	10.1007/s10113-016-1079-z
notes:	Bibliogr. s. 2289-2291
language:	English
journal language:	English
abstract in English:	Mountain forest areas are key for providing a wide range of ecosystem services and are hot spots for land use change processes, in particular, increase in forest cover at the expense of mountain pastures and meadows. Mountain forest systems in eastern and western Europe have likely similar future socio-economic situations but significantly different socio-economic history. Using a scenario-based land use modelling approach (Dyna-CLUE framework) we model three scenarios (trend, liberalisation and self-sufficiency) of future land use in the Polish Carpathians and the Swiss Alps, focussing on forest cover change. We find that forest cover increase can be expected to continue in European mountainous regions under all likely scenarios, limited only by relatively strict policy interventions. Biophysical factors, rather than socio-eco- nomic ones, are key for defining the suitability for, and therefore likely locations of future forest cover, but land use legacy plays a very important role in the spatial pat- terns of future forest cover, particularly in eastern Europe.
keywords in English:	forest cover change, land use change, future scenarios, the Polish Carpathians, the Swiss Alps
affiliation:	Wydział Geografii i Geologii : Instytut Geografii i Gospodarki Przestrzennej
type:	journal article
subtype:	academic paper