A simple model to quantitatively account for periodic outbreaks of the measles in the Dutch Bible Belt

2015
journal article
article
6
dc.abstract.enIn the Netherlands there has been nationwide vaccination against the measles since 1976. However, in small clustered communities of orthodox Protestants there is widespread refusal of the vaccine. After 1976, three large outbreaks with about 3000 reported cases of the measles have occurred among these orthodox Protestants. The outbreaks appear to occur about every twelve years. We show how a simple Kermack-McKendrick-like model can quantitatively account for the periodic outbreaks. Approximate analytic formulae to connect the period, size, and outbreak duration are derived. With an enhanced model we take the latency period in account. We also expand the model to follow how different age groups are affected. Like other researchers using other methods, we conclude that large scale underreporting of the disease must occur.pl
dc.affiliationWydział Fizyki, Astronomii i Informatyki Stosowanej : Instytut Fizyki im. Mariana Smoluchowskiegopl
dc.contributor.authorBier, Martinpl
dc.contributor.authorBrak, Bastiaanpl
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-14T11:54:58Z
dc.date.available2015-12-14T11:54:58Z
dc.date.issued2015pl
dc.date.openaccess0
dc.description.accesstimew momencie opublikowania
dc.description.admin[AB] Bier, Martin 50000139
dc.description.number4pl
dc.description.publication0,7pl
dc.description.versionostateczna wersja wydawcy
dc.description.volume88pl
dc.identifier.articleid107pl
dc.identifier.doi10.1140/epjb/e2015-50621-9pl
dc.identifier.eissn1434-6036pl
dc.identifier.issn1434-6028pl
dc.identifier.projectROD UJ / Ppl
dc.identifier.urihttp://ruj.uj.edu.pl/xmlui/handle/item/18220
dc.languageengpl
dc.language.containerengpl
dc.rightsUdzielam licencji. Uznanie autorstwa 4.0 Międzynarodowa*
dc.rights.licenceCC-BY
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode.pl*
dc.share.typeinne
dc.subject.enstatistical and nonlinear physicspl
dc.subtypeArticlepl
dc.titleA simple model to quantitatively account for periodic outbreaks of the measles in the Dutch Bible Beltpl
dc.title.journalThe European Physical Journal. B, Condensed Matter and Complex Systemspl
dc.typeJournalArticlepl
dspace.entity.typePublication
dc.abstract.enpl
In the Netherlands there has been nationwide vaccination against the measles since 1976. However, in small clustered communities of orthodox Protestants there is widespread refusal of the vaccine. After 1976, three large outbreaks with about 3000 reported cases of the measles have occurred among these orthodox Protestants. The outbreaks appear to occur about every twelve years. We show how a simple Kermack-McKendrick-like model can quantitatively account for the periodic outbreaks. Approximate analytic formulae to connect the period, size, and outbreak duration are derived. With an enhanced model we take the latency period in account. We also expand the model to follow how different age groups are affected. Like other researchers using other methods, we conclude that large scale underreporting of the disease must occur.
dc.affiliationpl
Wydział Fizyki, Astronomii i Informatyki Stosowanej : Instytut Fizyki im. Mariana Smoluchowskiego
dc.contributor.authorpl
Bier, Martin
dc.contributor.authorpl
Brak, Bastiaan
dc.date.accessioned
2015-12-14T11:54:58Z
dc.date.available
2015-12-14T11:54:58Z
dc.date.issuedpl
2015
dc.date.openaccess
0
dc.description.accesstime
w momencie opublikowania
dc.description.admin
[AB] Bier, Martin 50000139
dc.description.numberpl
4
dc.description.publicationpl
0,7
dc.description.version
ostateczna wersja wydawcy
dc.description.volumepl
88
dc.identifier.articleidpl
107
dc.identifier.doipl
10.1140/epjb/e2015-50621-9
dc.identifier.eissnpl
1434-6036
dc.identifier.issnpl
1434-6028
dc.identifier.projectpl
ROD UJ / P
dc.identifier.uri
http://ruj.uj.edu.pl/xmlui/handle/item/18220
dc.languagepl
eng
dc.language.containerpl
eng
dc.rights*
Udzielam licencji. Uznanie autorstwa 4.0 Międzynarodowa
dc.rights.licence
CC-BY
dc.rights.uri*
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode.pl
dc.share.type
inne
dc.subject.enpl
statistical and nonlinear physics
dc.subtypepl
Article
dc.titlepl
A simple model to quantitatively account for periodic outbreaks of the measles in the Dutch Bible Belt
dc.title.journalpl
The European Physical Journal. B, Condensed Matter and Complex Systems
dc.typepl
JournalArticle
dspace.entity.type
Publication
Affiliations

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