Assessing seasonal drought variations and trends over Central Europe

2019
journal article
article
135
dc.abstract.enThe relevance of drought is still often underestimated for temperate climate regions like Central Europe that are characterized by on average ample precipitation. Nonetheless, several drought events in recent years (e.g. 1992, 2003, 2015 and 2018) demonstrated that droughts are a relevant factor for several economic activities (e.g., agriculture, water dependent industries, energy supply, etc.) in Central Europe. This is particularly true for the vegetation period, where increasing evapotranspiration rates due to rising atmospheric temperatures are intensifying existing drought conditions that originally developed from rainfalls deficits. The contribution of this study is an assessment of the long-term variability of drought conditions and seasonal climate trends within 1951-2015 based on a collective of 91 climate stations from the national meteorological services of Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic. Using a set of eight drought and three heavy precipitation indices an aggregated evaluation of seasonal precipitation characteristics is done and the driest seasons are identified for the entire study area as well as for four sub-regions. It is shown that the choice of the study period matters (1951-2015 vs. 1961-2015) as the pronounced (multi-)decadal variability of drought conditions restricts the temporal stability of computed trends. The drought trends computed for 1951-2015 are similar in direction, but generally smaller in magnitude than those of the ten year shorter period 1961-2015, as the 1950s have been a very dry decade in Central Europe. Seasonally, drying trends were observed for spring and less pronounced for summer, while autumn and winter show wetting trends. The seasonal trends are sensitive to shifts in the season definition by one month. Vegetation period I (VP-I) shows stronger drying trends, but less increases in heavy precipitation than spring, while the drought trends are less pronounced in vegetation period II (VP-II) as compared to the summer season, but more trends towards heavy precipitation increases occur in VP-II. These differences are explained by the daily trends in the seasonal cycle that show the strongest drying in April, June and the beginning of August and the strongest wetting in March and September. Generally, heavy precipitation increases prevail over decreasing trends in all seasons, whereby stations with strong drought trends generally have smaller positive or even negative heavy precipitation trends. A simultaneous occurrence of drought and heavy precipitation increases is observed in spring at several stations, particularly in sub-region West.pl
dc.affiliationWydział Geografii i Geologii : Instytut Geografii i Gospodarki Przestrzennejpl
dc.contributor.authorHänsel, Stephaniepl
dc.contributor.authorUstrnul, Zbigniew - 160701 pl
dc.contributor.authorEwa, Łupikaszapl
dc.contributor.authorPetr, Skalakpl
dc.date.accession2020-03-05pl
dc.date.accessioned2020-03-06T09:26:14Z
dc.date.available2020-03-06T09:26:14Z
dc.date.issued2019pl
dc.date.openaccess0
dc.description.accesstimew momencie opublikowania
dc.description.additionalBibliogr. s. 74-75pl
dc.description.physical53-75pl
dc.description.versionostateczna wersja wydawcy
dc.description.volume127pl
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.03.005pl
dc.identifier.eissn1872-9657pl
dc.identifier.issn0309-1708pl
dc.identifier.projectROD UJ / OPpl
dc.identifier.urihttps://ruj.uj.edu.pl/xmlui/handle/item/151144
dc.identifier.weblinkhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0309170818308388pl
dc.languageengpl
dc.language.containerengpl
dc.rightsUdzielam licencji. Uznanie autorstwa - Użycie niekomercyjne - Bez utworów zależnych 4.0 Międzynarodowa*
dc.rights.licenceCC-BY-NC-ND
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode.pl*
dc.share.typeinne
dc.subject.enseasonal cyclepl
dc.subject.enheavy precipitationpl
dc.subject.enhargreaves evapotranspirationpl
dc.subject.enmRAIpl
dc.subject.enwBAIpl
dc.subject.entrend analysispl
dc.subtypeArticlepl
dc.titleAssessing seasonal drought variations and trends over Central Europepl
dc.title.journalAdvances in Water Resourcespl
dc.typeJournalArticlepl
dspace.entity.typePublication
dc.abstract.enpl
The relevance of drought is still often underestimated for temperate climate regions like Central Europe that are characterized by on average ample precipitation. Nonetheless, several drought events in recent years (e.g. 1992, 2003, 2015 and 2018) demonstrated that droughts are a relevant factor for several economic activities (e.g., agriculture, water dependent industries, energy supply, etc.) in Central Europe. This is particularly true for the vegetation period, where increasing evapotranspiration rates due to rising atmospheric temperatures are intensifying existing drought conditions that originally developed from rainfalls deficits. The contribution of this study is an assessment of the long-term variability of drought conditions and seasonal climate trends within 1951-2015 based on a collective of 91 climate stations from the national meteorological services of Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic. Using a set of eight drought and three heavy precipitation indices an aggregated evaluation of seasonal precipitation characteristics is done and the driest seasons are identified for the entire study area as well as for four sub-regions. It is shown that the choice of the study period matters (1951-2015 vs. 1961-2015) as the pronounced (multi-)decadal variability of drought conditions restricts the temporal stability of computed trends. The drought trends computed for 1951-2015 are similar in direction, but generally smaller in magnitude than those of the ten year shorter period 1961-2015, as the 1950s have been a very dry decade in Central Europe. Seasonally, drying trends were observed for spring and less pronounced for summer, while autumn and winter show wetting trends. The seasonal trends are sensitive to shifts in the season definition by one month. Vegetation period I (VP-I) shows stronger drying trends, but less increases in heavy precipitation than spring, while the drought trends are less pronounced in vegetation period II (VP-II) as compared to the summer season, but more trends towards heavy precipitation increases occur in VP-II. These differences are explained by the daily trends in the seasonal cycle that show the strongest drying in April, June and the beginning of August and the strongest wetting in March and September. Generally, heavy precipitation increases prevail over decreasing trends in all seasons, whereby stations with strong drought trends generally have smaller positive or even negative heavy precipitation trends. A simultaneous occurrence of drought and heavy precipitation increases is observed in spring at several stations, particularly in sub-region West.
dc.affiliationpl
Wydział Geografii i Geologii : Instytut Geografii i Gospodarki Przestrzennej
dc.contributor.authorpl
Hänsel, Stephanie
dc.contributor.authorpl
Ustrnul, Zbigniew - 160701
dc.contributor.authorpl
Ewa, Łupikasza
dc.contributor.authorpl
Petr, Skalak
dc.date.accessionpl
2020-03-05
dc.date.accessioned
2020-03-06T09:26:14Z
dc.date.available
2020-03-06T09:26:14Z
dc.date.issuedpl
2019
dc.date.openaccess
0
dc.description.accesstime
w momencie opublikowania
dc.description.additionalpl
Bibliogr. s. 74-75
dc.description.physicalpl
53-75
dc.description.version
ostateczna wersja wydawcy
dc.description.volumepl
127
dc.identifier.doipl
10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.03.005
dc.identifier.eissnpl
1872-9657
dc.identifier.issnpl
0309-1708
dc.identifier.projectpl
ROD UJ / OP
dc.identifier.uri
https://ruj.uj.edu.pl/xmlui/handle/item/151144
dc.identifier.weblinkpl
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0309170818308388
dc.languagepl
eng
dc.language.containerpl
eng
dc.rights*
Udzielam licencji. Uznanie autorstwa - Użycie niekomercyjne - Bez utworów zależnych 4.0 Międzynarodowa
dc.rights.licence
CC-BY-NC-ND
dc.rights.uri*
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode.pl
dc.share.type
inne
dc.subject.enpl
seasonal cycle
dc.subject.enpl
heavy precipitation
dc.subject.enpl
hargreaves evapotranspiration
dc.subject.enpl
mRAI
dc.subject.enpl
wBAI
dc.subject.enpl
trend analysis
dc.subtypepl
Article
dc.titlepl
Assessing seasonal drought variations and trends over Central Europe
dc.title.journalpl
Advances in Water Resources
dc.typepl
JournalArticle
dspace.entity.type
Publication
Affiliations

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