Searching for the most cost-effective strategy for controlling epidemics spreading on regular and small-world networks

2012
journal article
article
34
cris.lastimport.wos2024-04-10T00:38:00Z
dc.abstract.enWe present a combined epidemiological and economic model for control of diseases spreading on local and small-world networks. The disease is characterized by a pre-symptomatic infectious stage that makes detection and control of cases more difficult. The effectiveness of local (ring-vaccination or culling) and global control strategies is analysed by comparing the net present values of the combined cost of preventive treatment and illness. The optimal strategy is then selected by minimizing the total cost of the epidemic. We show that three main strategies emerge, with treating a large number of individuals (global strategy, GS), treating a small number of individuals in a well-defined neighbourhood of a detected case (local strategy) and allowing the disease to spread unchecked (null strategy, NS). The choice of the optimal strategy is governed mainly by a relative cost of palliative and preventive treatments. If the disease spreads within the well-defined neighbourhood, the local strategy is optimal unless the cost of a single vaccine is much higher than the cost associated with hospitalization. In the latter case, it is most cost-effective to refrain from prevention. Destruction of local correlations, either by long-range (small-world) links or by inclusion of many initial foci, expands the range of costs for which the NS is most cost-effective. The GS emerges for the case when the cost of prevention is much lower than the cost of treatment and there is a substantial non-local component in the disease spread. We also show that local treatment is only desirable if the disease spreads on a small-world network with sufficiently few long-range links; otherwise it is optimal to treat globally. In the mean-field case, there are only two optimal solutions, to treat all if the cost of the vaccine is low and to treat nobody if it is high. The basic reproduction ratio, R0, does not depend on the rate of responsive treatment in this case and the disease always invades (but might be stopped afterwards). The details of the local control strategy, and in particular the optimal size of the control neighbourhood, are determined by the epidemiology of the disease. The properties of the pathogen might not be known in advance for emerging diseases, but the broad choice of the strategy can be made based on economic analysis only.pl
dc.affiliationWydział Fizyki, Astronomii i Informatyki Stosowanej : Instytut Fizyki im. Mariana Smoluchowskiegopl
dc.contributor.authorKleczkowski, Adampl
dc.contributor.authorOleś, Katarzyna - 103641 pl
dc.contributor.authorGudowska-Nowak, Ewa - 128235 pl
dc.contributor.authorGilligan, Christopher A.pl
dc.date.accessioned2016-08-09T10:12:14Z
dc.date.available2016-08-09T10:12:14Z
dc.date.issued2012pl
dc.description.number66pl
dc.description.physical158-169pl
dc.description.volume9pl
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rsif.2011.0216pl
dc.identifier.eissn1742-5662pl
dc.identifier.issn1742-5689pl
dc.identifier.urihttp://ruj.uj.edu.pl/xmlui/handle/item/29454
dc.languageengpl
dc.language.containerengpl
dc.rightsDodaję tylko opis bibliograficzny*
dc.rights.licenceBez licencji otwartego dostępu
dc.rights.uri*
dc.subtypeArticlepl
dc.titleSearching for the most cost-effective strategy for controlling epidemics spreading on regular and small-world networkspl
dc.title.journalJournal of the Royal Society Interfacepl
dc.typeJournalArticlepl
dspace.entity.typePublication
cris.lastimport.wos
2024-04-10T00:38:00Z
dc.abstract.enpl
We present a combined epidemiological and economic model for control of diseases spreading on local and small-world networks. The disease is characterized by a pre-symptomatic infectious stage that makes detection and control of cases more difficult. The effectiveness of local (ring-vaccination or culling) and global control strategies is analysed by comparing the net present values of the combined cost of preventive treatment and illness. The optimal strategy is then selected by minimizing the total cost of the epidemic. We show that three main strategies emerge, with treating a large number of individuals (global strategy, GS), treating a small number of individuals in a well-defined neighbourhood of a detected case (local strategy) and allowing the disease to spread unchecked (null strategy, NS). The choice of the optimal strategy is governed mainly by a relative cost of palliative and preventive treatments. If the disease spreads within the well-defined neighbourhood, the local strategy is optimal unless the cost of a single vaccine is much higher than the cost associated with hospitalization. In the latter case, it is most cost-effective to refrain from prevention. Destruction of local correlations, either by long-range (small-world) links or by inclusion of many initial foci, expands the range of costs for which the NS is most cost-effective. The GS emerges for the case when the cost of prevention is much lower than the cost of treatment and there is a substantial non-local component in the disease spread. We also show that local treatment is only desirable if the disease spreads on a small-world network with sufficiently few long-range links; otherwise it is optimal to treat globally. In the mean-field case, there are only two optimal solutions, to treat all if the cost of the vaccine is low and to treat nobody if it is high. The basic reproduction ratio, R0, does not depend on the rate of responsive treatment in this case and the disease always invades (but might be stopped afterwards). The details of the local control strategy, and in particular the optimal size of the control neighbourhood, are determined by the epidemiology of the disease. The properties of the pathogen might not be known in advance for emerging diseases, but the broad choice of the strategy can be made based on economic analysis only.
dc.affiliationpl
Wydział Fizyki, Astronomii i Informatyki Stosowanej : Instytut Fizyki im. Mariana Smoluchowskiego
dc.contributor.authorpl
Kleczkowski, Adam
dc.contributor.authorpl
Oleś, Katarzyna - 103641
dc.contributor.authorpl
Gudowska-Nowak, Ewa - 128235
dc.contributor.authorpl
Gilligan, Christopher A.
dc.date.accessioned
2016-08-09T10:12:14Z
dc.date.available
2016-08-09T10:12:14Z
dc.date.issuedpl
2012
dc.description.numberpl
66
dc.description.physicalpl
158-169
dc.description.volumepl
9
dc.identifier.doipl
10.1098/rsif.2011.0216
dc.identifier.eissnpl
1742-5662
dc.identifier.issnpl
1742-5689
dc.identifier.uri
http://ruj.uj.edu.pl/xmlui/handle/item/29454
dc.languagepl
eng
dc.language.containerpl
eng
dc.rights*
Dodaję tylko opis bibliograficzny
dc.rights.licence
Bez licencji otwartego dostępu
dc.rights.uri*
dc.subtypepl
Article
dc.titlepl
Searching for the most cost-effective strategy for controlling epidemics spreading on regular and small-world networks
dc.title.journalpl
Journal of the Royal Society Interface
dc.typepl
JournalArticle
dspace.entity.type
Publication
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